The New Foreign Exchange Market at the Venezuelan Central Bank

Subject: The New Foreign Exchange Market at the Venezuelan Central Bank

Source: The Devil's Excrement

Author: moctavio

According to the Venezuelan Central Bank, the new parallel market in which dollar bonds will be traded within a price band at that bank, will begin operating next week. In tune with the revolution, the system will be implement by that evil/capitalist/gringo company called Bloomberg. I doubt the new system will be in place before the end of next week, it is not only the platform that matters, but also the regulations which go from how to order at your bank, to how the band system will exactly work. Since brokers are banned from this, the banks have to train personnel, print forms and learn how to run the system. I think it will be at least another week before this is implemented and trading begins.

Which means that three weeks would have gone by without any access to foreign currency other than Cadivi, the foreign exchange control office. Since Cadivi is quite stingy, that means inventories are being drawn down fast and there will be accumulated demand in the parallel system when it opens. How much? Well, if the old, and now banned, swap system used to trade 80-100 million $ a day that means there will be 1.2 billion to 1.5 billion dollars ready to buy, not a small amount.

Thus, the question is who will supply this money to the buyers. Minister Giordani has said the Government will not do it, that the money will have to come from the US$ 40 billion in Pdvsa and Venezuela bonds that the Government has issued. Except that not only are these bonds largely in the hands of foreigners that want or need no Bolivars, but they are all trading below their face value, roughly at 65% of their face or nominal value on average, so what's out there is less than US$ 26 billion in actual, real dollars, which is what matters to this fx market.

Chavez has threatened to force local banks to sell their bonds for Bolivars, Analysts estimate this is somewhere between 10 and 17 billion dollars, with the Government saying it is US$ 11 billion, but these numbers are guesstimates based on calculations of the limit on dollars that banks can hold, as established by the Government.

A much simpler and precise estimate is to look at how much banks had in Venezuela and PDVSA bonds as of Dec. 31st. last year, a number that should not have changed much since then. That tabulation gives a much lower number of at most US$ 5 billion in nominal or face value, which corresponds to a cash dollar value of only US$ 3.4 billion give or take one hundred million for each.

That is not much. In fact, that is barely the needs of the parallel market for five to six weeks, of which three have already gone by. Which means that even if the Government forces banks to sell their bonds for Bolivars it is barely a scratch on the surface and in two months, this new market will need a new source of funds or a different structure.

Which implies that problems will continue for the foreseeable future and the Government will, once again, have to improvise a "new, new" system before September.

Not pretty at all.

     

Read more…

CNBC.com Article: Euro Edges Up, but Still Vulnerable

CNBC.com Article: Euro Edges Up, but Still Vulnerable

The euro inched up on Monday, recouping small losses incurred after a cut to Spain's debt rating, but the currency remained on the back foot as the downgrade highlighted ongoing structural weaknesses in the euro zone.

Full Story:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37429761

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EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2010 Table Browser

Excellent tool to keep up on the oil stats in the USA and around the world.

EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2010 Table Browser

AEO Table Brower and Charting Application This new browser application provides interactive, comparative displays of any of the yearly, regional and supplementary tables provided with the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO2010) for all of the integrated cases. The tool also provides comparative charts for any data series in the tables, with results displayed across any user-selected cases. It also provides a customizable, comparison spreadsheet format for downloading.

View the full report at:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/


Contact:
Paul Kondis
202-586-1469
Energy Information Administration
Contact Us <http://www.eia.doe.gov/contactus.html> | Washington, DC |
www.eia.doe.gov <http://www.eia.doe.gov/>  | (202) 586-8800

FW: World Energy Use Projected to Grow 49 Percent Between 2007 and 2035

World Energy Use Projected to Grow 49 Percent Between 2007 and 2035

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
MAY 25, 2010

 World Energy Use Projected to Grow 49 Percent Between 2007 and 2035;

Rapid Growth Projected for Renewables, but Fossil Fuels Continue to Provide Most of the World's Energy Under Current Policies

WASHINGTON, DC - World marketed energy consumption grows 49 percent between 2007 and 2035, driven by economic growth in the developing nations of the world, according to the Reference case projection from the International Energy Outlook 2010 (IEO2010 ) released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). "Renewables are the fastest-growing source of world energy supply, but fossil fuels are still set to meet more than three-fourths of total energy needs in 2035 assuming current policies are unchanged," said EIA Administrator Richard Newell. The global economic recession that began in 2007 and continued into 2009 has had a profound impact on near-term prospects for world energy demand. Total marketed energy consumption contracted by 1.2 percent in 2008 and by an estimated 2.2 percent in 2009, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services declined (Figure 1 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/press/images/2010_07_figure1.jpg>  ). In the Reference case, as the economic situation improves, most nations are expected to return to the economic growth rates that were projected prior to the downturn. Total world energy use in the Reference case rises 49 percent, from 495 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2007 to 739 quadrillion Btu in 2035. China and India are among the nations least impacted by the global recession, and they will continue to lead the world's economic and energy demand growth into the future. In 2007, China and India together accounted for about 20 percent of total world energy consumption. With strong economic growth in both countries over the projection period, their combined energy use more than doubles by 2035, when they account for 30 percent of world energy use in the IEO2010 Reference case. In contrast, the projected U.S. share of world energy consumption falls from 21 percent in 2007 to about 16 percent in 2035. Average world oil prices increased strongly from 2003 to mid-July 2008, then declined sharply over the rest of 2008. In 2009, oil prices again trended upward and this trend continues in the Reference case, with prices rising to $108 per barrel by 2020 (in real 2008 dollars) and $133 per barrel by 2035. Total liquid fuels consumption projected for 2035 is 28 percent or 24.5 million barrels per day higher than the 2007 level of 86.1 million barrels per day. Conventional oil supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) contribute 11.5 million barrels per day to the total increase in world liquid fuels production, and conventional supplies from non-OPEC countries add another 4.8 million barrels per day. World production of unconventional resources (including biofuels, oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids), which totaled 3.4 million barrels per day in 2007, increases nearly fourfold to 12.9 million barrels per day in 2035. Other report highlights include:

• From 2007 to 2035, total world energy consumption rises by an average annual 1.4 percent in the IEO2010 Reference case. Strong economic growth among the non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) nations drives the increase. Non-OECD energy use increases by 2.2 percent per year; in the OECD countries energy use grows by only 0.5 percent per year.
• Petroleum and other liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, though projected higher oil prices erode their share of total energy use from 35 percent in 2007 to 30 percent in 2035.
• World natural gas consumption increases 1.3 percent per year, from 108 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 156 trillion cubic feet in 2035. Tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane supplies increase substantially in the IEO2010 Reference case-especially from the United States, but also from Canada and China.
• In the absence of additional national policies and/or binding international agreements that would limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, world coal consumption is projected to increase from 132 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 206 quadrillion Btu in 2035, at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent. China alone accounts for 78 percent of the total net increase in world coal use from 2007 to 2035.
• World net electricity generation increases by 87 percent, from 18.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2007 to 35.2 trillion kilowatthours in 2035. Renewables are the fastest growing source of new electricity generation, increasing by 3.0 percent per year in the Reference case; followed by coal-fired generation, which increases by 2.3 percent per year.
• In the IEO2010 Reference case, world industrial energy consumption grows 66 percent, from 184 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 262 quadrillion Btu in 2035. The non-OECD economies account for about 95 percent of the world increase in industrial sector energy consumption in the Reference case.
• Almost 20 percent of the world's total delivered energy is used for transportation, most of it in the form of liquid fuels. The transportation share of world total liquids consumption increases from 53 percent in 2007 to 61 percent in 2035 in the IEO2010 Reference case, accounting for 87 percent of the total increase in world liquids consumption.
• In the IEO2010 Reference case, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from 29.7 billion metric tons in 2007 to 42.4 billion metric tons in 2035--an increase of 43 percent. Much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing nations of the world, especially in Asia (Figure 2 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/press/images/2010_07_figure2.jpg>  ).
  

The IEO2010 Highlights can be found on EIA's web site at:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html  View the International Energy Outlook 2010 press conference <http://csis.org/event/international-energy-outlook-2010>  

The product described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in the product and press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies.
EIA Program Contacts: Linda Doman, 202-586-1041; John Conti, 202-586-2222

EIA Press Contact: Jonathan Cogan, 202-586-8719

EIA-2010-07

U.S. Energy Information Administration
Contact Us <http://www.eia.doe.gov/contactus.html> | Washington, DC | www.eia.doe.gov <http://www.eia.doe.gov/>  | (202) 586-8800

NYTimes: Home Sales in April Top Expectations

From The New York Times:

Home Sales in April Top Expectations

Sales of previously owned homes rose 7.6 percent in April, aided by a tax credit for first-time buyers.

http://nyti.ms/cPuDiG

Home Sales in April Top Expectations

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: 25 May 2010

WASHINGTON (AP) — Home sales in April surpassed expectations as government incentives provided a temporary lift to the housing market.

The National Association of Realtors said Monday that sales of previously owned homes rose 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million. That was the best showing in five months and better than the 5.63 million units economists had expected.

The increase in sales ignited a rise in home prices. The median price for a new home rose to $173,100, up 4 percent from a year ago.

The federal government provided a lift to home sales this spring by offering first-time buyers a tax credit of up to $8,000. Homeowners looking to upgrade could qualify for a credit of up to $6,500. The deadline for getting a signed sales contract was April 30.

Sales were up in all parts of the country except the West. The gains were led by a 21.1 percent jump in the Northeast and a 9.9 percent rise in the Midwest. Sales also rose 8.6 percent in the South.

The only region of the country that saw sales decline was the West, where sales dropped 6.2 percent from March.

The big question facing the housing market is what happens now that the government's tax credits have expired.

"No doubt there will be some temporary fallback in the months immediately after it expires," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the Realtors.

But Mr. Yun said that the improving economy has led to an upswing in consumer confidence, which should help support sales in the months ahead.

Poll: Gold or Silver?

Poll: Gold or Silver?