Returning his investors’ money was the best bet #MichaelPlatt of #BlueCrest Capital has placed in the last couple of years...

Blue Crest's 95% Gain Swells Michael Platt's Wealth to $10 Billion 

Last year’s results represent BlueCrest’s biggest gain since Platt said he would return about $7 billion in clients’ money five years ago to focus on trading for himself and for his partners. Not much is known about the firm’s trading strategy since then, but it has given Platt, 52, the broad freedom to take riskier and highly leveraged bets to juice up returns

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-21/platt-s-bluecrest-gained-a-record-95-in-2020-amid-virus-chaos

Financial Times: Commodity hedge fund loses $400m in oil slide

Its about time to start revising the standard deviation models.... 

 May 08 2011 10:00 PM GMT
Commodity hedge fund loses $400m in oil slide
--
By Sam Jones in London
--
World's largest commodity hedge fund is the biggest of several large hedge funds believed to be reeling after the recent unexpected sell-off

Read the full article at: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2b9bfa74-79a0-11e0-86bd-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

Sent from a wireless device.

Teflon Stevie, forever?

Just as the days of the teflon market are coming to an end, so slowly prosecutors are finally discovering all the grizly details of how one make billions of dollar year after year without fail. And when they put the full picture together, teflon Stevie is next.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/noose-tightens-prosecutors-focus-core-sac-fund-managed-personally-cohen#comment-form

FT Alphaville » If algos can mis-value a book by $23.7m…

If algos can mis-value a book by $23.7m…

Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Apr 26 15:19.
… how might they be mis-valuing equities?
So asks Themis Trading on Tuesday after discovering this curio of a story from CNN about algo-bots gone wild on Amazon.
The story relates to the listing of a book called “The Making of a Fly” by Peter Lawrence on Amazon.com on April 18 for no less than $23,698,655.93 (plus shipping) — seemingly the result of an algo price war.
The price anomaly itself was unearthed by Michael Eisen, an evolutionary biologist and blogger, who logically observed this couldn’t be a one off situation.
As he noted on his blog:

What’s fascinating about all this is both the seemingly endless possibilities for both chaos and mischief. It seems impossible that we stumbled onto the only example of this kind of upward pricing spiral – all it took were two sellers adjusting their prices in response to each other by factors whose products were greater than 1. And while it might have been more difficult to deconstruct, one can easily see how even more bizarre things could happen when more than two sellers are in the game. And as soon as it was clear what was going on here, I and the people I talked to about this couldn’t help but start thinking about ways to exploit our ability to predict how others would price their books down to the 5th significant digit – especially when they were clearly not paying careful attention to what their algorithms were doing.

Cue in-depth analysis of third party vendors providing pricing algorithms for independent traders on Amazon and Ebay.
As CNN points out, individual booksellers on Amazon and other sites pay such companies for services which automatically update prices. Some work very well, “getting sellers up to 60 per cent more sales because they underbid the competition automatically and repeatedly”.
Some, as the case above illustrates, lose touch with reality altogether.
Now, as Themis Trading points out, all of this does bear an uncanny resemblance to what’s going on in financial markets thanks to the algo strategies deployed by high frequency traders.
These sorts of algos, after all, are equally prone to losing touch with the fair value of the equities they are pricing, as the notorious flash-crash of May 6 proves. Now, if you keep the parallel going, that means the example of the $23.7m fly book is nothing more than Amazon’s own equivalent of a market flash or dash.
As Themis’ Sal Arnuk observes:

So, now we have Flash Crashes and Flash Dashes outside the stock market! Is everything being priced in the universe today, not with forethought, but rather as some relation to another price, which in turn is set in relation to yet another price? All without human intervention? Is this wise? Is anyone doing the thinking? Is anyone doing “the work” in our stock markets, as well as on AMAZON? On the eve of the May 6th Flash Crash, perhaps it is wise to think about that question.

Of course, while most ‘flash crash day’ trades were cancelled in the end, we wonder how many Amazon buyers who realise they’ve been had via algo mispricing end up cancelling their trades. And how often it happens.
Secondly, does this make Amazon and Ebay the dark pools of the retail sector, with John “never knowingly undersold” Lewis the equivalent of a market exchange?
And last – is it time for a retail versus financial market structure comparison diagram? We think yes



FT Alphaville » If algos can mis-value a book by $23.7m…

Canadian Miners Don’t Love the London Stock Exchange - Deal Journal - WSJ

Canadian Miners Don’t Love the London Stock Exchange
- Deal Journal - WSJ:
"By Phred Dvorak and Edward Welsch

When the London Stock Exchange Group Ltd. announced its proposed takeover of Toronto’s bourse, one of the supposed benefits was access–for Toronto-listed firms–to London’s deep pools of capital.

EPA/Adrian Bradshaw

That’s a topic dear to the hearts of roughly 1,500 cash-hungry start-up miners that populate the Toronto bourse and its venture affiliate. Those “junior miners”–and their constant need for money to drill, test and explore — have made the Toronto Stock Exchange, operated by TMX Group Inc., the mining-finance market of choice.

So what do those juniors think about the proposed deal? Not much, according to some of the attendees Deal Journal interviewed at the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada conference in Toronto, the world’s largest gathering of small-cap miners.

Kerry Knoll, chairman of Canada Lithium Corp., with some $140 million in market cap, looked into listing on the LSE’s AIM market for smaller firms a few years ago and found it a much more expensive proposition than going public on the Toronto bourse. If London controlled the Toronto exchanges as well, the combined entity could raise the cost of listing in Canada, Knoll worries: “I would fear they’d bring that (higher-cost model) here and really put a crimp in our incubator.”

LSE and TMX executives selling the deal in recent weeks have said the Toronto exchange would remain Canadian-operated and regulated, and would benefit capital-seeking firms by offering truly global scale.

But David McPherson, president of Pure Nickel Inc., at some $14 million market cap, said he’d worry the interests of small, Canadian firms like his may get lost in a bigger exchange.

Pure Nickel raised money on the Toronto Venture Exchange, TSE’s junior market, in 2007 to buy land. It moved up to Toronto’s big board later that year. It’s already raised money from London institutional investors, but it doesn’t expect any additional U.K. retail-investment opportunities from a TSX-LSE combination.

“All I see is the risk that we could become insignificant in a much larger exchange,” he said.

But there are some fans, including Graham Downs, the CEO of ATAC Resources Ltd., market cap north of $600 million, thanks in part to a new discovery of gold in the Yukon.

“There’s a big resource component of the London Stock Exchange, but they are so focused on Africa and all these other places that they know,” Downs says. “They don’t have a lot of access to us, so I think it’ll open more pockets [of money] to Canadian ventures.”

Even though money may initially flow more toward London than Canada while the market finds its equilibrium, Downs says, in the end there will be a bigger pool of capital available to the best companies.

“If you’ve got good projects, if you’ve got a quality team, the money will find you,” he says.

Canadian Miners Don’t Love the London Stock Exchange - Deal Journal - WSJ

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-- The MasterFeeds

John Paulson's Interview With The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

John Paulson's Interview With The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Courtesy of zerohedge.com

John Paulson, of the eponymous uber-hedge fund did an hour-long interview with the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.  I listened to it (thanks to NYT Dealbook, although not sure where they got it from), and really, I got a kick out of it even though I think my carpal-tunnel is really flaring up now.  Anyway, without further ado, here's what the man behind the Greatest Trade Ever has to say about the Financial Crisis… When asked what he saw, when, and why he decided to get short, he said "First thing we noticed was that real estate market appeared very frothy, values rose very rapidly, which led me to believe real estate markets were over valued."  That's pretty simple/straightforward, no?  I think it's pretty interesting that he said the 3 homes he's bought were all out of foreclosure, and they'd increased in value 4-5x over a 2-3 year period through ~'2005.  Apparently the impetus for the research that led to The Trade was literally staring him in the face every time he got home from work! He explained his approach, and the way he put it makes me really think the guys who didn't leave their trading desks & "never saw the bubble/crash coming" really had their heads buried in the sand deeper than I previously thought.  As Paulson said, "Credit markets were very frothy, very little attention paid to risk, spreads were very low, we thought when those securities correct, it could present opportunities on short side." Their research approach was pretty straight-forward: Focus on subprime, where they were amazed at how low quality the underwriting was, and how low the credit characteristics were on the loans.  They found the average FICO  was around 630, and over half of the loans were for cash-out refi's, which were based on appraised, not sales prices (so "value" could be manipulated).  For many of these loans, LTV was very, very high, 80, 90, 100% with many of them concentrated in California (no surprise there).  Close to have of the mortgages they looked at were of the stated-income, no-doc variety. Those who did report incomes had D/I ratios of > 40% before taxes and insurance.  80% of them were ARMs, so-called 2/28's with teaser rates around 6-7% for those first 2 years, but after they reset, the rates were L+ 600bps which at the point would have doubled the interest rate on these loans, and Paulson & Co thought there was very little - if any - chance borrowers would be able to afford the higher payments. Once the rates reset, the only thing these borrowers could do would be to sell, refinance, or default.  These were people spending > 40% of their gross income on their mortgages already, once the rate jumped up after the teaser period, they expected that many borrowers would simply default, and the price of the RMBS into which these loans were securitized would fall drastically, while the price of the protection (CDS, etc) Paulson bought on them would skyrocket. Paulson & co also went much further in their analysis, well-beyond what many of those on Wall Street were doing.  In May, 2006, they researched growth of 100 MSA's and found that there was a correlation between growth and the performance of subprime loans originated within them.  As growth rates slowed, defaults rose.  From 2000-2005, they found that with 0% growth, there'd be losses of around 7% in the mortgage pools. When they looked at the structure of the RMBS they found the average securitization had 18 separate tranches and that the BBB level only had 5.6% subordination, essentially, once losses surpassed that point, the tranches would become impaired, and if they reached 7% losses (what Paulson thought would happen once home price appreciation only slowed to 0%), the entire tranch would get wiped-out entirely. By mid-2006, home prices not only had slowed to 0% but were actually decreasing, albeit slowly, only about 1%.  Even still, demand from institutional investors was so great, spreads tightened to 100bps. Why?  Because as Paulson went on to explain, institutional investors were buying up the BBB tranches (the lowest investment grade ones) in hoards. While he didn't say it, I will (for the umpteenth time!): This is what happens when institutions effectively outsource credit research to the Ratings Agencies, even though many had/have internal credit analysis groups (ahem IKB ahem).  They buy the highest-yielding security you can find that meets your investment guidelines, which meant that for many, they could only buy securities deemed by the brain trusts at the Ratings Agencies as "Investment Grade." Paulson started their credit fund in June, 2006, and as he explained, it wasn't really as simple as it may seem. Historically - going back to about WWII - the average loss on subprime securities was 60bps, nowhere near what Paulson & Co expected was about to happen.  As he said "according to the mortgage people, there'd never been a default on an investment grade (IG) mortgage security."  These same people were also of the mindset that they'll NEVER get to the levels where the BBB tranches are impaired let alone wiped out completely.   These were also the same people who said that not since the Great Depression there hadn't been a single period where home prices declined nation-wide.  These same people thought, worst case, home price growth would drop to 0% temporarily and then return to growth, just like before.

MasterFeeds: Market Recap: 12.1.2010 from zero hedge

Market Recap: 12.1.2010

The rally that began overnight – Chinese PMI and a dramatic rally in European sovereign credit – was propelled further by yet another round of impressive US data. ADP significantly better with solid positive revisions and ISM a touch better as well. Another Santa Clause rally? December is good month forstocksafter all. That might actually be the pain trade too with positions having been cut so dramatically. SPX close up 26 at 1206. The DOW closes up 250 at 11256. The NASDAQ closes up 51 at 2549. The VIX fell -2.18 vols to end the day at 21.36, erasing all of yesterday’s gains. Today’s lesson in FX: EURUSD is a very sharp toy. 1.2970 the low overnight => 1.3137 LDN high as sovereign credit rips tighter => failure above 200d => 1.3046 => 1.3183 as a ‘US official’ says the US is considering a larger IMF contribution to the IMF rescue fund => 1.3095 as the WSJ reports the US is NOT considering a larger contribution. Elsewhere, USDJPY takes back yesterday’s losses – tech buying and US fixed income selling off. ZAR continues to trade like a champ. ZAR TWI reaches three year high. TRY though, waswhere we saw the biggest buying interest. Despite solid gains across the board, EM flow elsewhere waslight. The appetite to add to risk is still rather limited, it seems. The rates market sold in the general risk-on move finishing 8 to 17 bps weaker with the belly underperforming.  Despite the 8.17bn Fed buyback in the 7yr sector, the market continued to trade heavy throughout the session.  Flows were relatively light in our franchise business and much of the move down was futures led.  Tomorrow brings another Fed buyback in the 8-10yr sector but the market seems to be more concerned with other asset classes. In commodities, energy was unsurprisingly bid despite moderately bearish DOE stats (builds in crude and gasoline, draw in distillate) and spreads tightened.  Flow-wise, we saw leveraged selling of Brent spreads and Nat Gas (GS announced a new bearish NG forecast).  Industrial metals outperformed precious following strong China PMI.  Copper finished up +3.2%, while palladium gained +4.25%.  The big story in ags was wheat, which gained over +7% on concerns of excessive rainfall affecting Australia’s harvest.  Inflation continues to be the key theme, particularly given the UN’s announcement today that world food prices are the highest in 2 years. US credit gapped tighter overnight following positive China data and stronger European sovereign credit.  Volumes were dominated by street names racing to cover short risk positions driving spreads much tighter.  IG dropped 4 bp’s to 95.50 and the price of HY rose 1.1875 points to 99.8125. Tomorrow brings GDP for the Euroland and Switzerland, retail sales for Australia and Switzerland, and Brazilian IP. The ECB also meets tomorrow, with an expected announcement on its full allotment policy. And currency detail from Talking Forex: EUR/USD The EUR pared some of its recent losses against the USD on Wednesday amid speculation that in order to preserve stability in the Eurozone the ECB may be prepared to expand its bond buying program to EUR 2trl. The move higher saw the pair clear the 200DMA at 1.3126 and is now on target to test the 10DMA at 1.3347. Going forward however, there is a risk that should Thursday’s press conference by Trichet fail to meet market expectations; EUR may come under renewed selling pressure. In terms of downside support levels, the 1.3000 and 1.2950 levels are expected to contain any near-term selling. Also worth noting is that the Spanish debt agency is due to auction EUR 1.75-2.75bln Oct-13 bonds on Thursday, the outcome of which is expected to be the main driver behind the price action during London hours. GBP/USD Similarly to the EUR, GBP gained against the greenback which fell around 0.5% on the back of press reports which suggested the ECB may be prepared to expand its bond buying program and also refrain from returning back to competitive style ECB auctions just yet. Also worth noting is that Wednesday’s PMI data suggested the sector was growing more strongly than expected, underpinning the view that the BoE was right to refrain from expanding its Asset Purchase Facility (APF). Still, gains were somewhat muted and the pair failed to break any key levels which suggests that the Bearish pattern remains in place. In terms of technical levels, support is seen at 1.5550/30/00 and then at 1.5490. However should the pair continue on its upward trend, it is expected to face strong resistance at the 100DMA at 1.5716. USD/JPY The pair finished the session higher and more importantly consolidated above 84.00 following solid Chinese manufacturing data, as well as on speculation that the ECB stands ready to announce further policy easing measures in order to ease pressure on the EU-bloc. In terms of technical levels, immediate resistance is seen at 84.40/50, which once breached will open the door towards 85.00. To the downside, support is seen at 83.70/40 and 83.00. Compiled by Goldman, Talking Forex and Zero Hedge

View article...

FW: Frontrunning: November 23

• Ex-Goldmanite Gary Gensler "Tickled Pink" as CFTC Ramps Up for Price Fixing
  Posted by: EB
  Post date: 11/23/2010 - 10:28
  While Bernanke was putting the finishing touches on QE2 in DC, 50 global financial regulators met at the New York Fed to discuss regulation of world's largest market. Instead of financial reform measures, what is being created is simply a massive new power center headed by the CFTC from which those at the top will vainly attempt to manipulate market prices and entrench favored institutions within the new framework.

• China Is In a Self-Imposed Bubble That Has Nowhere To Go But Bust! You Don’t Get Something (Growth Through Stimulus) For Nothing (No Economic Consequences)
  Posted by: Reggie Middleton
  Post date: 11/23/2010 - 10:13
  The bubble know one wants to admit is priming to pop just in time to massage the European issues.

• Star Options Trader Charles Hughes Sees the Greatest Bull Market in Stocks in Our Lifetime
  Posted by: madhedgefundtrader
  Post date: 11/23/2010 - 07:55
  The seven time winner of the International Trading Championship gives his long term technical view. If the market reverts to the mean and makes up for the recent lost decade, then we should earn 22% a year over the next decade. Chuck thinks we have a lot of catching up to do.

Frontrunning: November 23

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/23/2010 09:12 -0500

• Consumer Confidence
• France
• Germany
• Gross Domestic Product
• International Monetary Fund
• Ireland
• Italy
• North Korea
• Norway
• Reserve Currency
• Reuters
• Volatility
• Yuan

• Goodbye reserve currency: Yuan begins trading against the rouble (China Daily) this is big news
• US has no good options over North Korean clash (FT)
• South Korea Prepared to Implement Market-Stability Measures After Shelling (Bloomberg)
• Focus Shifts to China as North Korea Tensions Escalate (Reuters)
• China Inflation `Volcano' May Prove Too Hot for Controls After Cash Surge (Bloomberg)
• Growth in Thailand, Malaysia Slows, Heralding Caution in Asian Rate Moves (Bloomberg)
• Irish PM Defiant as Coalition Cracks (FT)
• IMF urges cuts in Irish minimum wage and dole payments (Irish Times)
• Europe Has Not Yet Rescued Ireland (FT)
• Markets’ Bail-Out Relief Rally Is Short-Lived (FT)
• Fed Adopts Political Tactics on Critics (NYT)
• Volatility bumps up agricultural trading costs (FT)

Economic Highlights:

• Euro-Zone PMI Composite 55.4 - higher than expected. Consensus 53.6. Previous 53.8.
• Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing 55.5 - higher than expected. Consensus 54.4. Previous 54.6.
• Euro-Zone PMI Services 55.2 - higher than expected. Consensus 53.2. Previous 53.3.
• Germany GDP nsa for Q3 3.9% y/y – in line with expectations.Consensus 3.9%. Previous 3.9%.       
• Germany GDP s.a. for Q3 0.7% q/q – in line with expectations.Consensus 0.7% q/q. Previous 0.7% q/q.
• Germany PMI Manufacturing58.9 - higher than expected.Consensus 56.8. Previous 56.6.
• Germany PMI Services58.6 - higher than expected.Consensus 55.8. Previous 56.0.
• France Own-Company Production Outlook for November 11 - lower than expected.Consensus 15. Previous 16.
• France Production Outlook Indicator for November 8 - lower than expected.Consensus 10. Previous 9.          
• France Business Confidence Indicator for November 100 - lower than expected.Consensus 102. Previous 102.
• France PMI Manufacturing for November 57.5 - higher than expected.Consensus 55. Previous 55.2.  
• France PMI Services for November 55.7 - higher than expected.Consensus 54.8. Previous 54.8.
• Italy Consumer Confidence Ind. sa for November 108.5 - higher than expected.Consensus 107.4. Previous 107.7.
• Norway GDP s.a. for Q3 -1.6% q/q - lower than expected.Consensus 0.5% q/q. Previous 0.1% q/q.      
• Norway GDP Mainland Norway s.a for Q3 0.9% q/q – in line with expectations.Consensus 0.9% q/q. Previous 0.5% q/q

View article...

GM Breaks For Trading

from zerohedge.com

GM Breaks For Trading

By Tyler Durden

Created 11/18/2010 - 09:43

Human traders finally appear on the NYSE floor for the first time in years to allow the biggest flip in history to begin.

And courtesy of the green shoe, Wall Street's underwriters are about to make $2 billion. Free lunch for everyone. Ironically, Getco's DMM status being fully tested as HFT moves entirely to trading GM. Some very appropriate commentary from a desk: "20% OF ISSUE SIZE TRADED IN 10 MINUTES. THIS IS THE MOST AMAZING CHURN I HAVE SEEN IN MY LIFE."

[1]

• New York Stock Exchange

---

Source URL: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gm-breaks-trading

Links:
[1] http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/gono/GM.png

GM Breaks For Trading

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-- The MasterFeeds

Frontrunning: November 18

Frontrunning: November 18

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/18/2010 08:13 -0500

• Fed Orders 2nd Round of Stress Tests  (WSJ), translation: more capital raises for Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citi.
• Lenihan Says Ireland May Ask for Bank Package as Bailout Nears (Bloomberg)
• One in 20 Irish Mortgages in Arrears (FT)
• China Vows to Tame Inflation (Reuters)
• Korea to Revive Tax on Foreigners' Bond Holdings to Slow Capital Inflows (Bloomberg)
• IMF Says HK Currency Peg Boosting Property Prices (FT)
• India Microcredit Faces Collapse From Defaults (NYT)
• Vilsack: Food Costs Won't Surge  (WSJ)
• Failed Models and the Real Costs of QE2 (Economics21)
• California Shrinks Planned Tax-Exempt Sale, Expands Taxable (Bond Buyer)
• OECD Reduces Global Growth Outlook, Predicts Soft Spot in 2011 (Bloomberg)
• OECD backs much-criticized Fed easing steps (Reuters)
• Wolin: No Meaningful US Impact from Euro Zone Crisis (Reuters)
• Bank of America and the middle-man hedge (Housing Wire)
• QE2 could drive Asia 30% higher (City Wire)
• Ally CEO of mortgage operations says foreclosure flaws "unacceptable" (Housing Wire)
• GM IPO Increase: How They Turned It All Around (Steve Rattner)
• CDS spreads can be volatile and prone to false positives (FT)
• Sticking it to the unemployed (LA Times)

Economic Highlights:

• Euro-Zone Current Account nsa for September -9.2B. Previous -10.6B.   
• ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA for September -13.1B. Previous -6.9B.
• Switzerland Trade Balance for October 2.10B - higher than expected. Consensus 1.40B. Previous 1.68B.  
• Switzerland Exports real SA for October 6.2% m/m. Previous -3.1% m/m. 
• Switzerland Imports real SA for October 1.9% m/m. Previous -4.0% m/m. 
• Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) for November -30.9. Previous -27.5.
• Sweden Unemployment Rate for October 7.5% - lower than expected. Consensus 7.6%. Previous 7.8%.
• UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel forOctober 0.3% m/m 1.2% y/y - in line with expectations. Consensus 0.2% m/m 1.5% y/y. Previous -0.3% m/m 1.3% y/y.     
• UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel for October 0.5% m/m -0.1% y/y - in line with expectations. Consensus 0.4% m/m 0.0% y/y. Previous -0.5% m/m 0.0% y/y.     
• UK Public Finances (PSNCR) for October 2.4B - lower than expected. Consensus 6.0B. Previous 20.7B.    
• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing for October 9.8B - higher than expected. Consensus 8.9B. Previous 14.4B.UK PSNB ex
• Interventions for October 10.3B - higher than expected. Consensus 9.6B. Previous 15.0B.     UK CBI Trends Total
• Ordersfor November -15 - higher than expected. Consensus -24. Previous -28. 

View article...

Frontrunning: November 16

Frontrunning: November 16

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/16/2010 08:27 -0500

• Meet the new reserve currency: Global Power, Influence Shifting From US To China (WSJ)
• IMF Lowers Dollar, Yen Weights in Its SDR Valuation Basket, Increases Euro (Bloomberg)
• Liesman with another hilarious interview: Fed Easing Is Not Aimed at Weakening US Dollar says ex-Goldmanite and current New York Fed president Dudley (CNBC)
• China May Raise Interest Rates Several More Times, Fidelity's Bolton Says (Bloomberg)
• China Selling Stockpiled Pork, Sugar to Cut Prices (BusinessWeek)
• Revaluation pressures on emerging markets (FT)
• Eurozone Members Pressed on Debt Plans (FT)
• Ireland's Cowen to Weigh EU Steps to Shore Up Banking System (Bloomberg)
• Merkel Resilient in Face of European, ECB Opposition to Debt-Crisis Plan (Bloomberg)
• Fed's Yellen Defends Bond-Purchase Plan  (WSJ)

Economic highlights:

• Euro-Zone 25 New Car Registrations for October -16.6%. Previous -9.6%.
• Euro-Zone CPI - Core for October 1.1% y/y - higher than expected.Consensus 1.0% y/y. Previous 1.0% y/y.      
• Euro-Zone CPI for October 0.4% m/m 1.9% y/y - in line with expectations. Consensus 0.3% m/m 1.9% y/y. Previous 0.2% m/m 1.9% y/y.     
• Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) for November 13.8 - higher than expected. Consensus 2.0. Previous 1.8. 
• Germany ZEW Survey (Current Situation) for November 81.5 – higher than expected. Consensus 75.0. Previous 72.6.
• Germany ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) for November 1.8 - higher than expected. Consensus -6.0. Previous -7.2.  
• France Non-Farm Payrolls for Q3 0.3% - higher than expected. Consensus 0.2%. Previous 0.2%.   
• Italy CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) for October 0.2% m/m 1.7% y/y – in line with expectations. Consensus 0.2% m/m 1.7% y/y. Previous 0.2% m/m 1.7% y/y.     
• Italy CPI - EU Harmonized for October 0.7% m/m 2.0% y/y – in line with expectations. Consensus 0.7% m/m 2.0% y/y. Previous 0.7% m/m 2.0% y/y. 
• UK DCLG UK House Prices forSeptember 6.1% y/y. Previous 8.1%.
• UK CPI for October0.3% m/m 3.2% y/y - higher than expected. Consensus 0.2% m/m 3.1% y/y. Previous 0.0% m/m 3.1% y/y. 
• UK Core CPI forOctober 2.7% y/y - higher than expected. Consensus 2.6% y/y. Previous 2.7% y/y.
• UK Retail Price Index for October225.8 - lower than expected.Consensus 226.0. Previous 225.3.
• UK RPI for October 0.2% m/m 4.5% y/y - lower than expected. Consensus 0.3% m/m 4.6% y/y. Previous 0.4% m/m 4.6% y/y.  
• UK RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments for October4.6% y/y – in line with expectations. Consensus 4.6% y/y. Previous 4.6% y/y. 

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Feed: zero hedge
Posted on: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 02:28 PM
Author: Tyler Durden
Subject: Frontrunning: November 16

Meet the new reserve currency: Global Power, Influence Shifting From US To China (WSJ) IMF Lowers Dollar, Yen Weights in Its SDR Valuation Basket, Increases Euro (Bloomberg) Liesman with another hilarious interview: Fed Easing Is Not Aimed at Weakening US Dollar says ex-Goldmanite and current New York Fed president Dudley (CNBC) China May Raise Interest Rates Several More Times, Fidelity's Bolton Says (Bloomberg) China Selling Stockpiled Pork, Sugar to Cut Prices (BusinessWeek) Revaluation pressures on emerging markets (FT) Eurozone Members Pressed on Debt Plans (FT) Ireland's Cowen to Weigh EU Steps to Shore Up Banking System (Bloomberg) Merkel Resilient in Face of European, ECB Opposition to Debt-Crisis Plan (Bloomberg) Fed's Yellen Defends Bond-Purchase Plan  (WSJ) Economic highlights: Euro-Zone 25 New Car Registrations for October -16.6%. Previous -9.6%. Euro-Zone CPI - Core for October 1.1% y/y - higher than expected.Consensus 1.0% y/y. Previous 1.0% y/y.       Euro-Zone CPI for October 0.4% m/m 1.9% y/y - in line with expectations. Consensus 0.3% m/m 1.9% y/y. Previous 0.2% m/m 1.9% y/y.      Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) for November 13.8 - higher than expected. Consensus 2.0. Previous 1.8.  Germany ZEW Survey (Current Situation) for November 81.5 – higher than expected. Consensus 75.0. Previous 72.6. Germany ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) for November 1.8 - higher than expected. Consensus -6.0. Previous -7.2.   France Non-Farm Payrolls for Q3 0.3% - higher than expected. Consensus 0.2%. Previous 0.2%.    Italy CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) for October 0.2% m/m 1.7% y/y – in line with expectations. Consensus 0.2% m/m 1.7% y/y. Previous 0.2% m/m 1.7% y/y.      Italy CPI - EU Harmonized for October 0.7% m/m 2.0% y/y – in line with expectations. Consensus 0.7% m/m 2.0% y/y. Previous 0.7% m/m 2.0% y/y.  UK DCLG UK House Prices forSeptember 6.1% y/y. Previous 8.1%. UK CPI for October0.3% m/m 3.2% y/y - higher than expected. Consensus 0.2% m/m 3.1% y/y. Previous 0.0% m/m 3.1% y/y.  UK Core CPI forOctober 2.7% y/y - higher than expected. Consensus 2.6% y/y. Previous 2.7% y/y. UK Retail Price Index for October225.8 - lower than expected.Consensus 226.0. Previous 225.3. UK RPI for October 0.2% m/m 4.5% y/y - lower than expected. Consensus 0.3% m/m 4.6% y/y. Previous 0.4% m/m 4.6% y/y.   UK RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments for October4.6% y/y – in line with expectations. Consensus 4.6% y/y. Previous 4.6% y/y.

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Paulson Sept 30

Paulson Sells Large Portions Of BofA, Citi, Wells, Capital One, Dumps All Of Goldman, Adds 500,000 In Potash Merger Arb

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/paulson-sells-large-portions-bofa-citi-wells-jpm-dumps-all-goldman-adds-500000-potash-merger?utm_source=feedburner&ut

By Tyler Durden

Created 11/15/2010 - 17:43

John Paulson's September 30 13F has been released [1]. Total long stock holdings reported amounted to $22.9 billion, unchanged from June 30. As expected, and following hot in the footsteps of David Tepper, Paulson dumped nearly 20% of his Bank of America and Citi stakes (30 million shares and 82.7 million shares respectively), sold about 11% of Wells Fargo and Capital One, and dumped his entire 1.1 million Goldman position. Keep in mind all this was before BofA stock got crushed in October: the next 13F will be even more interesting. Other divestitures included two thirds of his stake in Family Dollar Stores, a third of his position in Starwood Hotels, and over half of his Mead Johnson Nutrition position. While Paulson did not touch much of his gold exposure (he did sell 6% of Anglogold Ashanti), he kept GLD is biggest position (for the gold denominated holdings) at $4 billion, and added about 17 new positions, the biggest of which were Anadarko (13.4 MM shares), Hewitt Associates (7.6MM shares), NBTY (6.1 MM shares), McAfee (5 MM shares), and then some notable Merger arbs: Genzyme, Burger King and Potash, in which he added 500,000 shares. Either Paulson will now have to like Potash on its fundamentals, or he will have to sell this position. Oddly enough, today's market showed remarkable unwillingness on behalf of the arbs to dump their POT holdings. One wonders how long this will continue. Additionally, Paulson sold his entire half a billion dollar stake in Exxon, a position that he held for just one quarter. In other news, obviously, the love affair with financials is at least partially over, and at this point the future of the Recovery Fund may well be in doubt if even Paulson does not see the upside case for names such as BofA which a year ago he had a PT of $30 as of 2012.
[2]

Paulson Sept 30_1.jpg (JPEG Image, 761x1675 pixels) - Scaled (30%)

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Frontrunning: November 15

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/15/2010 07:55 -0500

• France
• Germany
• Greece
• International Monetary Fund
• Ireland
• Italy
• Japan
• Norway
• PIMCO
• Portugal
• Reuters
• Standard Chartered
• Switzerland
• Trade Balance
• United Kingdom

• G-20, APEC Yield Little to Fix Imbalances, Stem Inflow Concerns (Bloomberg)
• Ireland Talks With EU as Germany Pushes It to Take Bailout (Bloomberg)
• Europe stumbles blindly towards its 1931 moment (Telegraph)
• Portugal Faces Investor Scrutiny (WSJ)
• Greece Expects Budget Pressure From EU, IMF (WSJ)
• Lacker Says Fed's New Easing Push Too Risky (Reuters)
• Banks escaping big foreclosure class actions, because borrowers cannot demonstrate economic harm, according to plaintiff lawyers (Reuters)
• Who Will Stand Up to the Superrich? (NYT)
  
• Dollar boosted by higher Treasury yields (Reuters)
  
• China to Exceed U.S. by 2020, Standard Chartered Says (BusinessWeek)
• Japan’s economy grows as stimulus spurs spending (FT)
• Greenspan: High Deficits Could Spark Bond Crisis (ABC)
• The Fed vs. Brazil's Reformers (WSJ)
• China Vows Reforms to Cope with Global Uncertainty (Reuters)
• Inside the Inflation Debate: QE2 and Negative Real Yields in TIPS  (PIMCO)

Economic Highlights

• Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa for September 2.4B - higher than expected. Consensus 1.0B. Previous -1.7B. 
• Euro-Zone Trade Balance for September 2.9B - higher than expected. Consensus 0.1B. Previous -5.0B.    
• France Current Account (EURO) for September -4.4B. Previous -4.0B.    
• Italy Trade Balance (Total; Euros) for September -3187M. Previous -2967M.     
• Italy Trade Balance (Euros) for September -440M. Previous -829M.      
• Norway Trade Balance (Krone) for October 23.4B. Previous 22.7B.
• Switzerland Producer & Import Prices for October -0.4% m/m 0.3% y/y - lower than expected. Consensus 0.0% m/m 0.7% y/y. Previous -0.1% m/m 0.3% y/y.
• UK Rightmove House Prices -3.2% m/m 1.3% y/y. Previous 3.1% m/m 2.9% y/y.     

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G-20, APEC Yield Little to Fix Imbalances, Stem Inflow Concerns (Bloomberg) Ireland Talks With EU as Germany Pushes It to Take Bailout (Bloomberg) Europe stumbles blindly towards its 1931 moment (Telegraph) Portugal Faces Investor Scrutiny (WSJ) Greece Expects Budget Pressure From EU, IMF (WSJ) Lacker Says Fed's New Easing Push Too Risky (Reuters) Banks escaping big foreclosure class actions, because borrowers cannot demonstrate economic harm, according to plaintiff lawyers (Reuters) Who Will Stand Up to the Superrich? (NYT) Dollar boosted by higher Treasury yields (Reuters) China to Exceed U.S. by 2020, Standard Chartered Says (BusinessWeek) Japan’s economy grows as stimulus spurs spending (FT) Greenspan: High Deficits Could Spark Bond Crisis (ABC) The Fed vs. Brazil's Reformers (WSJ) China Vows Reforms to Cope with Global Uncertainty (Reuters) Inside the Inflation Debate: QE2 and Negative Real Yields in TIPS  (PIMCO) Economic Highlights Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa for September 2.4B - higher than expected. Consensus 1.0B. Previous -1.7B.  Euro-Zone Trade Balance for September 2.9B - higher than expected. Consensus 0.1B. Previous -5.0B.     France Current Account (EURO) for September -4.4B. Previous -4.0B.     Italy Trade Balance (Total; Euros) for September -3187M. Previous -2967M.      Italy Trade Balance (Euros) for September -440M. Previous -829M.       Norway Trade Balance (Krone) for October 23.4B. Previous 22.7B. Switzerland Producer & Import Prices for October -0.4% m/m 0.3% y/y - lower than expected. Consensus 0.0% m/m 0.7% y/y. Previous -0.1% m/m 0.3% y/y. UK Rightmove House Prices -3.2% m/m 1.3% y/y. Previous 3.1% m/m 2.9% y/y.

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Insider Selling To Buying: 2,341 To 1 | zero hedge

Published on zero hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com)

---

Insider Selling To Buying: 2,341 To 1

By Tyler Durden

Created 10/05/2010 - 20:46

Sorry kids, we just report the news... as ugly as they may be. After last week saw an insider selling to buying [1]ratio of 1,411 to 1, this week the ratio has nearly doubled, hitting a ridiculous 2,341 to 1. And while Wall Street's liars and CNBC's clowns will have you throw all your money into "leading" techs like Oracle and Google, insiders in these names sold a combined $200 million in stock in the last week alone (following Oracle insider sales of $223 million in the prior week). Insiders can. not. wait. to. get. out. fast. enough. This Fed-induced rally is nothing short of a godsend for each and every corporate executive. But yes, there may be value: there was insider buying in 2 (two) companies last week: General Dynamics and Best Buy, for a whopping total of $177,064. At the same time sales were a total of $414 million: so is anyone wondering why JPMorgan is reopening its gold vault... Anyone left holding the bag on this market when the FRBNY props are taken away, will be left with the same return as all those investors who entrusted their money with Madoff. Guaranteed.
[2]
Source: Bloomberg [3]

• Best Buy
• Google
• Insider Selling

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Source URL: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-buying-2341-1

Links:
[1] http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-buying-surpasses-1400-1
[2] http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/shirakawa/Insider Selling 10.4.jpg
[3] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-04/weekly-insider-buying-and-selling-by-s-p-500-companies.html

Insider Selling To Buying: 2,341 To 1 | zero hedge

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-- The MasterFeeds

Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Dénouement

 Until we face up to the reality of the economic landscape before us, we will be on the same path as Japan, 1987-present...

Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Denouement 
By Albert Edwards, Société Générale, London
 

The current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%! The recent reaction to data suggests the market is in a similar deluded state of mind. Yet again, equity investors refuse to accept they are now locked in a Vulcan death grip and are about to fall unconscious. The notion that the equity market predicts anything has always struck me as ludicrous. In the 25 years I have been following the markets it seems clear to me that the equity market reacts to events rather than pre-empting them. We know from the Japanese Ice Age and indeed from the US 1930's experience, that in a post-bubble world the equity market merely follows the economic cycle. So to steal a march on the market, one should follow the leading indicators closely. These are variously pointing either to a hard landing or, at best, a decisive slowdown. In my view we are poised to slide back into another global recession: the data is slowing sharply but, just like Japan in its Ice Age, most still touchingly believe we are soft-landing. But before driving off a cliff to a hard (crash?) landing we might feel reassured when we pass a sign that reads Soft Landingand we can kid ourselves all is well. I read an interesting article recently noting the equity market typically does not begin to slump until just AFTER analysts begin to cut their 12m forward EPS estimates (for the life of me I can't remember where I read this, otherwise I would reference it). We have not quite reached this point. But with margins so high, any cyclical slowdown will crush productivity growth. Already in Q2, US productivity growth fell 1.8% - the steepest fall since Q3 2006.Hence, inevitably, unit labour costs have begun to rise QoQ. This trend will be exacerbated by recent more buoyant average hourly earnings seen in the last employment report. Whole economy profits are set for a 2007-like squeeze. And a sharp slide in analysts' optimism confirms we are right on the cusp of falling forward earnings (see chart below). I love the delusion of the markets at this point in the cycle. It bemuses me why investors cannot see what is clear as the rather large nose on my face. Last Friday saw the equity market rally as August's 67k rise in private payrolls and an upwardly revised July rise of 107kbeat expectations. But did I miss something? When did we switch from looking at headline payrolls to private jobs? Does the fact that government is shedding jobs not matter? Admittedly temporary census workers do mess up the data, but hey, why not look at nonfarm payroll data ex census? Why not indeed? Because the last 4 months run of data looks notably weaker on payrolls ex census basis than looking only at the private payroll data (ie Aug 60k vs 67k, July 89k vs 107k, June 50k vs 61k and May 21k vs 51k). But these data, on either definition, look dreadful compared to the 265k rise in April and 160k in March (ex census definition). If someone as pathologically lazy as me can find the relevant BLS webpage after a quick call to the BLS (link), why can't the market? Because it is bad news, that's why. August's rebound in the US manufacturing ISM was an even bigger surprise. This is a truly nonsensical piece of datum as it was totally at variance with the regional ISMs that come out in the weeks before. The ISM is made up of leading, coincident and lagging indicators. The leading indicators - new orders, unfilled orders and vender deliveries - all fell and point to further severe weakness in the headline measure ahead (see chart above). It was the coincident and lagging indicators such as production, inventories and employment that drove up the headline number. Some of the regional subcomponents (eg Philadelphia Fed workweek) are SCREAMING that recession is imminent (see left hand chart below).   The real reason why markets reversed last week was that they got ahead of themselves. Aside from the end of 2008, government bonds were the most over-bought they had been over the last decade. And in equity-land the AAII two weeks ago recorded a historically low 20% of respondents as bullish (see chart above). These technical extremes will now be quickly worked off before the plunge in equity prices and bond yields resumes. I am often asked by investors with a similar view of the world to my own (yes, there are some),whether the equity market will ever reach my 450 S&P target because of the likelihood that further Quantitative Easing will prevent asset prices from falling back to cheap levels. Indeed we know that a central plank of the unhinged policies being pursued by the Fed and other central banks is to use QE to deliberately target higher asset prices. Ben Bernanke in a recent Jackson Hole speech dressed this up as a "portfolio balance channel", but in reality we know from current and previous Fed Governors (most notably Alan Greenspan), that they view boosting equity and property prices as essential for boosting economic activity. Same old Fed with the same old ruinous policies. And by keeping equity and property prices higher, the US and UK Central Banks are still trying to cover up their contribution towards the ruination of American and British middle classes - (see GSW 21 January 2010, Theft! Were the US and UK central banks complicit in robbing the middle classes? - link). The Fed may indeed prevent equity prices from slumping with any QE2 announcement. But this sounds a familiar refrain at this point in the cycle. For is monetary easing in the form of QE that different from interest rate cuts in its ability to boost equity prices? Indeed announced rate cuts in previous downturns often did generate decent technical rallies. But in the absence of any imminent cyclical recovery, equity prices continue to slide lower (see chart below). The key for me is whether QE2 can revive the economic cycle, not equity prices temporarily. In the absence of a cyclical recovery I cannot see how QE is any different in its ability to revive asset prices than lower rates in anything other than a temporary fashion. (Interestingly many of our clients think QE2 might give a temporary fillip to the risk assets but that the subsequent failure to produce any cyclical impact will cause an extremely violent reaction as investors lose faith in QE as a policy tool and Central Banks in general.) If we plunge back into recession, do not place too much confidence in the Central Banks having control of events. As my colleague, Dylan Grice, said last week "let them keep pressing their buttons." Ultimately they cannot fool all of the investors, all of the time.