GDP Misses Expectations, Comes At 2.4%, Plunges From Revised Q1 GDP Of 3.7%

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GDP Misses Expectations, Comes At 2.4%, Plunges From Revised Q1 GDP Of 3.7%

 

Double dip confirmed as Q2 GDP plunges from revised Q1 number: GDP comes in at a below consensus 2.4%, which a huge drop from the revised Q1 number which came in at 3.7% (from 2.7%). The GDP Price index comes at 1.8%, the core PCE comes at 1.1%, from 0.7% previously. Per the revised GDP numbers, the US economy has now shrunk by 4.1% from Q4 2007 to Q2 2009, compared with the 3.7% previous estimate. From the BEA: The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in imports and a deceleration in private inventory investment that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in federal government spending. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Full BEA release here Full Summary: 08:30 07/30 US 2006-2009 CHAIN PRICE INDEX REV TO +2.0% (PREV +2.1% 08:30 07/30 US 2006-2009 GDP REV TO -0.2% (PREV FLAT); 4Q06/4Q09 NOW -0.1% 08:30 07/30 US BEA: 2007 KEY DOWNWARD REVISIONS: PCE, HIGHER IMPORTS, GOVT 08:30 07/30 US 2007 PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE REV TO +2.1% (PREV +1.7%) 08:30 07/30 US 2007 GDP CHAIN PRICE INDEX UNREVISED AT +2.9% 08:30 07/30 US 2007 GDP REV TO +1.9% (PREV +2.1%);4Q/4Q +2.3% (PREV +2.5%) 08:30 07/30 US BEA: 2008 KEY DOWNWARD REVISIONS: NONRES FIXED, INVENTORIES 08:30 07/30 US 2008 PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE REV TO +4.1% (PREV +2.7%) 08:30 07/30 US 2008 GDP CHAIN PRICE INDEX REV TO +2.2% (PREV +2.1%) 08:30 07/30 US 2008 GDP REV TO FLAT (PREV +0.4%);4Q/4Q -2.8% (PREV -1.9%) 08:30 07/30 US BEA: LARGEST QUARTERLY GDP DROP NOW 4Q08; 1Q09 REVISED UP 08:30 07/30 US 2009 SERVICES PCE REVISED DOWN TO -0.8% VS PREV +0.1% 08:30 07/30 US BEA: 2009 KEY DOWNWARD REVISIONS:PCE,GOVT,RESIDENTIAL FIXED 08:30 07/30 US 2009 CORP PROFITS WITH CCADJ -0.4% VS PREV -3.8% 08:30 07/30 US 4Q08 GDP REV TO -6.8% (PREV -5.4%);CHAIN INDEX -1.2%(+0.1%) 08:30 07/30 US 1Q09 GDP REV TO -4.9% (PREV -6.4%);CHAIN INDEX +1.1%(+1.9%) 08:30 07/30 US 2Q09 GDP UNREV AT -0.7%;CHAIN INDEX REV TO +0.3%(PREV FLAT) 08:30 07/30 US 3Q09 GDP REV TO +1.6% (PREV +2.2%);CHAIN INDEX +0.7%(+0.4%) 08:30 07/30 US 4Q09 GDP REV TO +5.0% (PREV +5.6%);CHAIN INX -0.2%(+0.5%) 08:30 07/30 US 2Q REAL DISP INC +4.4% V 1Q +1.7%;SVNG RATE +6.2% V +5.5% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV CORE CHN WT INDX FOR DOM PURCHASES +0.9% V 1Q +1.6% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV CHAIN WT INDEX FOR DOM PURCHASES +0.1% VS 1Q +2.1% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV NONDURABLES PCE +1.6% VS 1Q +4.2% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV DUR PCE +7.5% VS 1Q +8.8%; SVCS +0.8% V +0.1% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV GDP CHAIN PCE DEFLATOR +0.1% VS 1Q +2.1% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV CHAIN WT INDEX EX FOOD, ENERGY +1.0% VS 1Q +1.7% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV MKT-BASED PCE DEFLATOR -0.2% VS 1Q +1.7% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV MKT-BASED CORE PCE DEFLATOR +1.0% VS 1Q +0.7% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT +17.0% VS 1Q +7.8% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV EXPRT GAP -$425.9B(1Q -$338.4B);IMPRT+28.8%(+11.2%) 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT +27.9% VS 1Q -12.3% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV CHANGE IN PRIVATE INVENTORIES +$75.7B VS 1Q +$44.1B 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV PCE +1.6% VS 1Q +1.9%; GOVT +4.4% VS 1Q -1.6% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR +1.8% VS 1Q +1.1% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV GDP PCE DEFLATOR EX FOOD,ENERGY +1.1% VS +1.2% 08:30 07/30 US 2009 GDP CHAIN PRICE INDEX REV TO +0.9% (PREV +1.2%) 08:30 07/30 US Data: Employment Cost Index - Summary 08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP INDUS PROD. +1.2% VS APRIL +0.1%; +7.2% YR/YR 08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP WHOLESALE -1.8% VS APRIL +0.5%; +8.3% YR/YR 08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP RETAIL +0.3% VS APRIL -1.8%; +4.7% YR/YR 08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP MFCTRING +0.1% VS APRIL -0.3%; +8.6% YR/YR 08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP SERVICES -0.1% VS APRIL -0.1%; +2.7% YR/YR 08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP GOODS +0.6% VS APRIL +0.1%; +6.3% YR/YR 08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP BASIC PRICES +0.1% VS APRIL -0.0%; +3.8% YR/YR 08:30 07/30 US 4Q07-2Q09 CONTRACTION PERIOD REV TO -2.8% SAAR (PREV -2.5) 08:30 07/30 US BLS: Q2 STATE/LOCAL COMP Y/Y AT +1.8% LOWEST ON RECORD('82) 08:30 07/30 US 2009 GDP REV TO -2.6% (PRV -2.4%);4Q/4Q +0.2% (PRV +0.1%) 08:30 07/30 US 2Q PRIV WAGES, SALARIES EX-INCENTIVE 2Q Y/Y +1.7%(1Q +1.4%) 08:30 07/30 US 1Q GDP REV TO +3.7% (PREV +2.7%);CHAIN INX +1.0%(+1.1%) 08:30 07/30 US 2Q WAGES,SALARIES +0.4% V 1Q +0.4%;2Q Y/Y +1.6%(1Q +1.5%) 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV CHAIN WEIGHT PRICE INDEX +1.8% VS 1Q +1.0% 08:30 07/30 US 2Q BENEFIT PAYMNTS +0.6% V 1Q +1.1%;2Q Y/Y +2.5%(1Q +2.2%) 08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV GDP +2.4% V 1Q +3.7%;FINL SALES +1.3% (+1.1%) 08:30 07/30 US 2Q EMPL COST INDEX +0.5% V 1Q +0.6%;2Q Y/Y +1.8%(1Q+1.7%)

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