MasterFeeds: Which Gold Miners Might Be Impacted by Possible Unrest in The Ivory Coast ? (Sales Commentary)

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Dec 3, 2010

Which Gold Miners Might Be Impacted by Possible Unrest in The Ivory Coast ? (Sales Commentary)

CONCLUSION: The situation in the Ivory Coast continues to simmer after recent elections.  Now the army has closed the Ivory Coast borders and is suspending foreign news organizations from reporting issues.  If tensions continue then mining operations in the country could potentially be negatively impacted.

 For reference, here are the gold miners with operations in the Ivory Coast:


Endeavour Mining (not rated. EVD CN, mkt cap C$320mm) - A development project in the Ivory Coast but producing assets are located in Burkina Faso

Cluff Gold (Market Perform, no target, CLF LN, mkt cap £150mm)- A producing mine in the Ivory Coast that accounts for approx. 25% of our NPV.  Key asset is in Burkina Faso and an exploration play in Sierra Leone

Newcrest (Outperform, A$52.50, NCM AU, mkt cap A$31.1bn) - The Ivory Coast assets are only 4% of our project NPV, but the exploration upset 

La Mancha (not rated. LMA CN, mkt cap C$368mm) - Highly levered to the Ivory Coast, with existing production from the country and many exploration targets.

Perseus (not rated. PRU AU, mkt cap A$1.3bn) -  Main development project is Tengrela in the Ivory Coast, with a feasibility expected by year-end and production possible in late-2012

Randgold (Outperform, target US$125, RRS LN, mkt cap £5.5bn) - Growth asset Tongon is in the Ivory coast and is ramping towards production by the end of the year.  The mine is 30% of our project NPV 

Please see attached map from our West Africa gold analyst, to see locations of each asset in the country.

     ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast,  Dec. 3 (UPI) -- The United Nations
has urged Ivory Coast election rivals to refrain from violence
while officials try to determine who won a presidential runoff.
     The Army sealed borders after Ivory Coast's electoral
commission announced that opposition candidate Alassane
Ouattara defeated incumbent Laurent Gbagbo, the BBC reported.
     However, the Constitutional Council said the announcement
is invalid, alleging voter fraud by Ouattara.
     The army announced it closed Ivory Coast borders. It also
said it would suspend foreign news organizations from reporting
issues.
     The election, the first presidential election in a decade,
was intended to reunify the nation, which was torn by a civil
war in 2002.
     The United Nations received reports of violence in parts
of the west and north during recent voting but said overall the
election seemed peaceful.
     "Our job is to remind them of their promises and
commitments and especially not to use violence," said U.N.
spokesman Hamadoun Toure.
     "They have to abide by electoral law, they have to keep
their promise during the campaigning that they won't use
violence to settle disputes and they also said they'd abide by
the results," Toure said.
     The Constitutional Council has one week to publish
official results of the election.
     Ivory Coast is the world's largest producer of cocoa.
    
--
Copyright 2010 United Press International, Inc. (UPI).  Any
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of any UPI content is expressly prohibited without UPI's prior
written consent.
All rights reserved.
--
-0- Dec/03/2010 14:49 GMT

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